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此前差不多有两年多的时间，油价一直维持在100美元以上，而且WTI和布伦特油价的差价也越来越大，差距甚至被拉到了14、15美元，于是就有炒作资金在这里边倒差价。这导致油价不完全由供需关系决定。虚高出来的部分，我认为至少有每桶20美元。
未来油价到底会怎样，是进一步跌还是会回升，跌到多少才托得住？还有人问，会不会跌到2008年那样40美元的水平？我认为跌到40美元的价格不大可能，如果跌到40美元，所有产业都撑不住，尤其是美国，撑不住就要减产，一减产又变成供不应求了，所以价格就一定会反弹上去。
但是到底跌到多少呢，我认为可能会在70美元，或者说70美元是最坏的打算了。
(作者系原国家能源局局长）
